In view of the worsening pandemic, tighter containment measures, and slower growth outlook, we think the odds for interest rates tilt on the downside. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Going into 2021, the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) continues to draw strength from Asia’s robust growth recovery particularly in China. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely maintain status quo after considering vaccine supply by 1H 2021, the enactment of a larger 2021 budget, negative real interest rates, and narrowing interest rate differentials with other central banks. After a difficult and rather ‘forgettable’ 2020, light can finally be observed at the end of the tunnel as we look forward to a more hopeful 2021 thanks to positive developments of COVID-19 vaccines. Receding daily COVID-19 cases, rollout of vaccines, increased spending by the governments along with easing of monetary restrictions will help revive the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN*) economies in 2021 with their real GDP forecasted to rise by 6%, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. Going forward, the recovery path will much depend on the extent of control of the pandemic. Asean is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. We expect Bank Indonesia to cut the 7D Reverse Repo rate by 25bps in 1Q 2021 to 3.5 per cent as growth recovery could still be uncertain and thus require further monetary support while fiscal disbursement remains somewhat lagged in supporting the broader pace of the economic recovery. In the developing countries of Southeast Asia - which include China, South Korea and Taiwan - economic output is expected to fall by 2%, with GDP then rising again by 8.1% in 2021. The first chapter covers the challenges, opportunities, and policy options facing the ASEAN+3 economies as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. By continuing to browse the site, you agree to our privacy notice and cookie policy. The BOT also projects the economy expanding at 3.2 per cent in 2021 (lower than previous forecast of 3.6 per cent). In this article, we look more specifically at the 2021 economic outlook for the ASEAN-6 economies. Lastly, the chapter discusses policymaking that will have to gradually shift from protecting lives and livelihoods to safeguarding an inclusive and sustainable recovery. Fiscal support is deemed more effective in revitalising growth from the health crisis as compared to monetary policy. In 2021, the return to growth in major ASEAN economies rests on the containment of COVID-19, structural growth and global outlook. The information contained in this article is based on certain assumptions, information and conditions available as at the date of the article and may be subject to change at any time without notice. The projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO. Excluding high-income newly industrialized economies, growth of 7.7% is forecast for this year and 5.6% for next year. The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. As such, Singapore’s economy should revert to positive growth, and comfortably clock an average growth of 5.0 per cent in 2021. It assesses the key short-term risks to the outlook, which are still very much driven by pandemic developments. The State Bank of Vietnam has slashed 200bps so far in 2020 in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the forces that are reshaping GVCs going forward and what regional economies can do to take advantage of any potential reconfiguration. Brunei Darussalam joined ASEAN on 7 January 1984 No. However, growth is expected to rebound to more than six percent in 2021, if the world returns to normal. We expect the resumption of business activities to take hold in 4Q20 but the pace is likely to be restrained against a backdrop of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Given the gradual recovery seen in Thailand’s macroeconomic environment, we keep our GDP outlook to -6.5 per cent in 2020. The uneven recovery between the external and domestic sectors and within the domestic economy is also analyzed, along with its implications for financial stability. Outlook 2021: ASEAN under Brunei’s Chairmanship. Under such a scenario, the global economy could return to growth of 5.2 per cent, but we are also cognisant that growth recovery will be uneven and differentiated across different economies and sectors. Due to rising deficits, debt and political volatility, the recovery will be bumpy. ASEAN Economic Community; ASEAN Socio – Cultural Community; Links; Sitemap. The manufacturing sector remains to be the key performer at +9.5 per cent year-on-year in 4Q20, while other sectors such as construction (-28.5 per cent year-on-year) and services (-7.8 per cent year-on-year) stayed in the doldrums. MARCH 31, 2021 | REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. While this uneven recovery is expected to improve, it depends heavily on the speed of deployment of COVID-19 vaccines globally. Forecasts - January 13, 2021. Looking at the year ahead, we think the Philippine peso (PHP) will maintain its short-term resiliency as broad dollar weakness is expected to continue into 2021. The 2021 forecast is revised up 0.3 percentage point relative … You should consult your own professional advisers about the issues discussed in this article. The unevenness of the recovery is likely to remain, i.e. With the domestic economic outlook still uncertain and further rate cuts expected, sustained gains in the IDR beyond 14,000 appears unlikely. Notwithstanding the near-term resurgence in COVID-19, the global backdrop in 2021 will likely be favourable for Singapore with the expectations of a vaccine-driven recovery in global demand. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) upgraded its Thai GDP trajectory for 2020, now expecting it to contract by -6.6 per cent (versus -7.2 per cent previously and in line with our forecast of -6.5 per cent) due to improvement in private consumption and merchandise exports. Vietnam also sought to leverage its once-in-a-decade opportunity as ASEAN chair—a position which rotates between the member states on an annual basis—to shape the regional agenda. Survey shows curbing COVID and income support keys to economic recovery Domestically, China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in December pledged that there would be no policy cliff, easing market concerns on over-tightening. Download, Highlights: Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges, Full Chapter: Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges, Appendix: Selected Key Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators, Highlights: Global Value Chains in the Post-Pandemic “New Normal”, Full Chapter: Global Value Chains in the Post-Pandemic “New Normal”, ©2018 AMRO | All Rights Reserved | Reproduction without permission prohibited, Press Release: ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2021 – Prospects and Challenges, Infographic: ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2021, Replay: Launch of ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2021. ASEAN Economic Outlook for 2021 In recent weeks, the question of when and how quickly an economic recovery can be expected has arisen with increasing frequency. In the coming year, the global reflation theme is likely to underpin risk appetite which in turn would weigh on the United States Dollar (USD). The sizeable government spending plans of MYR322.5bn (or 20.6 per cent of GDP) planned for 2021, coupled with ongoing stimulus measures would help support the ongoing recovery. Developing Asia Outlook. However, we remain cautious and have imputed modest upside from vaccine effects on domestic demand and consequently on gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As such, we continue to be cautious on the THB, weighed by a fragile economic recovery. Southeast Asia's growth leader in 2021 may well be Vietnam. Home / Calendar / Official Meetings ASEAN NOTIONAL CALENDAR 2021 as of April 2021; NON-TRADITIONAL SECURITY JOINT CALENDAR 2021 as of February 2021… A meaningful AFAIF will enhance ASEAN’s relevance in this important issue. In the coming year, growth of about +5.4% can be expected. As a result, these regions continue to experience geopolitical and geostrategic shifts . Developing Asia's economic revival is underway, supported by a healthy global recovery and progress on vaccines. favouring manufacturing and trade sectors, while people-intensive sectors like tourism, retail, entertainment continue to lag. Expectations of higher crude oil prices and robust current account surplus could support MYR. That said, in the near term, the world economy is still being held hostage by a raging COVID-19 pandemic and could send the economic activity into a temporary dip in 1Q (2021), before recovering again as vaccines get progressively and more widely rolled out. Economy India and ASEAN set to return to growth in early 2021: JCER. Domestic headwinds include tougher containment measures and politics. The fifth issue of the AREO, which provides AMRO staff’s assessment of both the conjunctural and structural issues within the ASEAN+3 region, coincides with the organization’s tenth anniversary. Although recent vaccine approvals have raised hopes of a turnaround in the pandemic later this year, renewed waves and new variants of the virus pose concerns for the outlook. This article shall not be copied, or relied upon by any person for whatever purpose. Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China (PRC); the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taiwan, developing Asia is forecast to grow 2.4 percent this year, compared to 5.7 percent in 2019, before rebounding to 6.7 percent next year. It assesses the key short-term risks to the outlook, which are still very much driven by pandemic developments. In 2021, the return to growth in major Asean economies rests on the containment of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), structural growth and global outlook. Going by conservative estimates, there is a 60 per cent chance we should see a containment of the pandemic by 4Q21, with gradual removal of social distancing measures across 2H21. Disclaimer; Subscribe; Official Meetings. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will also likely benefit Singapore. The BOT kept its one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 0.50 per cent for the fifth consecutive meeting in December 2020 as viewed that keeping its benchmark rate unchanged will serve to “preserve the limited policy space”. MAS’ tone in its October MAS Monetary Policy Statement remains cautious and our base case is for the MAS to keep policy parameters unchanged in its upcoming April 2021 meeting. The AREO 2021 is based on information available as of February 28, 2021. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN was founded on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok by the five original Member Countries; Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. With the appointment of the first female governor to the central bank, Nguyen Thi Hong, there is a high likelihood of a rate cut in the works to spur credit growth ahead. Efforts are underway to secure supplies of COVID-19 vaccines in 1H 2021. The region’s growth is forecast to rebound to 7.3% in 2021, moderating to 5.3% in 2022. Even a quick return to growth would likely only mask deep economic and social scars. New cases surged in the first months of 2021; The implementation of various vaccines has started but most ASEAN countries have not yet secured enough doses to jab the whole population; Economic performance in 2020 differed greatly with economic growth of 4.2% in Vietnam and a contraction of -9.5% in the Philippine economy Singapore’s GDP contracted 5.8 per cent in 2020, according to the advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Despite hopes that vaccines will be available in December 2020 for emergency use authorisation (EUA), we view that Indonesia’s economic recovery in 2021 may not be at full throttle. It is part of ASEAN’s initiatives for maximising the potential for an intra-ASEAN market and broader economic integration, including attracting more FDI to the region to support economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. With the authorities’ clear emphasis to slow the Thai baht’s (THB) gains in the near term, a sustained appreciation beyond its key psychological level at 30/USD appears unlikely. Information and communication, and human health-and-social work activities, that thrive during the pandemic in Indonesia, will continue to grow strongly in 2021. Underpinned by its resilient economy, which is expected to register an almost pre-pandemic growth rate of 7.1 per cent in 2021, we see further scope for Vietnamese dong (VND) gains. The country managed 2.9% economic expansion last year thanks to its success in containing the virus -- … We use cookies in order to provide you with better services on our website. Resilient growth outlook Although ASEAN as a group has made some impressive progress, variations remain between individual markets, due to their different economic lifecycles. This article is given on a general basis without obligation and is strictly for information only. [18] POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR ASEAN. Going into 2021, growth prospects continue to hinge on when the pandemic can be resolved including the successful development and widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and enhancement of public health system, as well as how households adjust in a post-pandemic environment. Find out how we can help your business expand across ASEAN, Copyright © 2021 United Overseas Bank Limited. The country’s net external creditor position, low foreign holdings of local currency debt, ample foreign reserves, and solid fundamentals will also likely temper expectations for a reversal in the current account to deficit as consumer demand and import activities pick up with the further reopening of the economy. All Rights Reserved. This article is not intended as an offer, recommendation, solicitation, or advice to purchase or sell any investment product, securities or instruments. The regional economy is forecast to recover well in 2021 from this year’s sharp contraction, with domestic demand set to be buoyed by an uptick in consumer and capital spending. ... notably the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal. Global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. The AREO 2021 is based on information available as of February 28, 2021. So, we reiterate our view of further modest Singapore Dollar (SGD) gains against the USD. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, … Most ASEAN countries have experienced recession in 2020. For more information, please download the 2021 Economy Playbook. However, broad USD weakness would mean any rebound in USD/IDR is likely to be confined within familiar ranges. IMF Asia Economic Outlook ReleaseDate: 13 April 2021 Asia is growing strongly in 2021, but there is still much uncertainty and risk to the economic outlook, the IMF says in the newly released Asia Pacific Regional Economic Outlook released Tuesday (April 13) in Washington, DC. ASEAN SUMMIT 2021. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy and objectivity of the information contained in this article, UOB and its employees make no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no responsibility or liability for any error, inaccuracy, omission or any consequence or any loss or damage howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed and the information in this article. The first chapter covers the challenges, opportunities, and policy options facing the ASEAN+3 economies as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. UOB INFINITY (DIGITAL BANKING FOR BUSINESS). According to a forecast by the World Bank, economic growth in the ASEAN-10 countries will be -4.3% in 2020. Amid exceptional uncertainty, the global economy is projected to grow 5.5 percent in 2021 and 4.2 percent in 2022. By UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. Volume 2021 Issue 1. MANILA, PHILIPPINES (10 December 2020) — Economic activity in developing Asia is forecast to contract by 0.4% this year, before picking up to 6.8% in 2021 as the region moves toward recovery from the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, according to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) today. The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. 193500026Z. ASEAN-5 Data cited at: World Economic Outlook, April 2021, The International Monetary Fund. The ASEAN-5 economies, including the Philippines, are expected to rebound in 2021, though downside risks continue to dominate. ASEAN, South Asia Event Risk – Philippine Central Bank and GDP, Indian and Chinese CPI. AREO 2021 Launch Presentation Slides Notwithstanding the uptick, Thailand remains very dependent on trade and tourism, and we are cognisant about the near term risks related to the resurgence of COVID-19 infections, both domestically and globally, before the vaccines can be broadly and effectively rolled out. In the best scenario, the ASEAN economy would contract by 2.7 percent in 2020, and will only grow by … The second chapter, which typically analyzes longer-term structural issues confronting the ASEAN+3 region, looks at the related issues of global value chain (GVC) reconfiguration and technology bifurcation. However, the spike in Covid-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. casts a shadow over the outlook, potentially dragging on regional exports to key markets at the outset of the year. RECENTLY, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that one in 10 people worldwide might have been infected […] The projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO. Description: Global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. Improved global economic growth prospects and country-specific improvements amid vaccine developments and sustained fiscal policy support are expected to lend support to these economies' growth prospects for the year. Co. Reg. Indonesia’s GDP fell by 2.1 per cent in 2020, its first full-year contraction since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, after growing 5 per cent in 2019.Various international institutions including the IMF, World Bank, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have forecast 2021 growth to rebound by 4-5 per cent, with OECD on the upper end of that range at 4.9 per cent. For now, we keep our call for BOT to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50 per cent for 2021. 2021 is the first year of China’s 14 th five year plan (2021-2025), which we believe should imply a stable economic outlook. Having a strong understanding of the differences between the ASEAN markets is … Also, given increased scrutiny from the US Treasury, Hanoi is less likely to intervene directly in the markets to tamper with the VND’s strength. The recent measures to tighten movement restrictions and Malaysia’s national state of emergency come amid escalating COVID-19 infections that threaten the ability of health services. After a year dominated by the Corona pandemic, various vaccines give hope that global economic momentum can be resumed in 2021. 2021 economic outlook for ASEAN-6 markets | UOB ASEAN Insights Policy Support and Vaccines Expected to Lift Activity. ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific The Asia - Pacific and Indian Ocean regions are amongst the most dynamic in the world as well as centers of economic growth for decades . We expect Indonesia’s economy to return to positive growth territory in 2021 with a baseline growth scenario of 4.3 per cent. AMRO said in its report titled “Asean+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2021” that the Philippine economy will grow by 6.9 percent this year, down from the 7.4-percent earlier forecast. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) cut its policy rate by a cumulative 125bps to 1.75 per cent in 2020 as the effects of the pandemic and movement restrictions continued to weigh on the economy. Krungsri unveiled 2021 economic outlook for Thailand and ASEAN at Krungsri Business Talk: Thailand and ASEAN Economic Outlook 2021 It focuses on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand … Nothing in this article constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax or other advice. 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